20^th March 2008  

Last November, Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union's anti-terror chief, said that al-Qaeda was the biggest threat to Europe. To confirm this, Western intelligence services have recently established operational links between al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and al-Qaeda in The Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) whose goals include striking at the heart of Europe.

Al-Qaeda has not made any secret of its eagerness to target Europe. Indeed, Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's number two, has repeatedly threatened Europe. In 2007, numerous al-Qaeda-linked plots were foiled in Europe and several cells were dismantled in France, Spain, Denmark, Belgium, Germany and the United Kingdom. In September, thanks to information provided by US intelligence, Germany arrested three members of an al-Qaeda cell that planned on blowing up the US military base of Ramstein and the Frankfurt airport.

This network allegedly had ties to other European countries since the explosives seized were similar to those used in the London attacks. The investigation also showed that the terrorists had connections to both Pakistan and Syria. Another important fact is that two out of the three alleged terrorists were Muslim converts. In fact, al-Qaeda has for a long time advocated using European nationals, and if possible converts, in terror attacks.

Incidentally, German intelligence confirmed that, in the past few months, Islamist recruiters targeted new converts to Islam. The reason being that the latter are less easily identifiable and have better understandings of German culture and habits. Also what particularly worries German authorities is the rise in the number of young German Muslims traveling to study in Pakistan.

For proof, in July, Pakistani authorities arrested seven Germans that sought to join a terror training camp. The Pakistani connection does not stop there: Pakistani terrorists recently arrived in Algeria to train with AQIM members.

All the more worrisome is that of all al-Qaeda's affiliates, AQIM is the organization most capable of striking at Europe. In 2007, AQIM pulled off numerous major and spectacular and deadly terror attacks in Morocco, Mauritania (recently killing French tourists) and especially in Algeria with the multiple suicide attacks in Algiers on April 11 and December 11.

But the real challenge for AQIM is to inflict massive damage to Europe. Zawahiri instructed them to do so on multiple occasions. In order to keep its credibility alive and please its "masters", AQIM has been trying hard to orchestrate a terror attack on the continent.

At the end of last year, the level of "chatter" increased dramatically and has continued unabated since then. This led to the first-ever cancellation of the popular Paris-Dakar auto race and also compelled Belgian authorities to cancel New Year's Eve fireworks in Brussels.

Today, al-Qaeda threats seem even more imminent and European security services are on high alert. On January 19, Spain dismantled an al-Qaeda cell that was almost exclusively Pakistani, except for an Indian Muslim member. It was planning a terror attack in Barcelona and, as El Pais reported, a wave of attacks in Germany, France, Britain and Portugal. Also Le Figaro reported earlier that there are allegedly "moving cells" composed of terrorists of Pakistani origin traveling around Europe.

That article also pointed out that 50,000 Pakistanis (half of them illegals) live in France. Finally, a very worrisome trend in 2007 was the emergence of the "lone jihadi", loosely linked to al-Qaeda. One of them was arrested on May 2 in Nancy, France. He was planning attacks against the US Consulate in Luxembourg and a McDonald's.

For months, he had been in touch on the Internet with AQIM militants, asking them for material support. Sometimes these "invisible Islamists", known to "fly under the radar" of security networks, decide to act on their own. Said Christophe Chaboud, head of Uclat (Unit'de Coordination de la Lutte antiterroriste), the French counterterrorism czar, "An isolated individual can today inflict as much damage as an organization."

At the moment, Europe is facing a triple threat: AQIM, "al-Qaeda Pakistan" and the loosely al-Qaeda-affiliated "lone jihadis". Unfortunately, the likelihood of a successful terror attack on European soil in 2008 remains quite high.