2nd
October 2008
It
appears that speculation of an October Surprise terror
attack by al Qaeda is being taken seriously by U.S.
secret service forces.
According to the
Telegraph, US secret forces are intensifying their
cross-border raids into Pakistani tribal areas because
of fears of a high-profile al-Qaeda attack during the
American election campaign.
The Pentagon has ordered
that raids on suspected terrorist targets within
Pakistan be stepped up to pressurise al-Qaeda leaders
and distract them from preparing attacks on American
targets elsewhere.
“The aim is to disrupt
their scope for planning and keep their leaders on the
move so that it is more difficult for them to
co-ordinate complicated plots,” a senior US intelligence
official told The Sunday Telegraph.
[...]
The approach of the US
election has fuelled fears that al Qaeda or its allies,
including the increasingly active Haqqani network, will
seek a headline-grabbing strike against a symbolic
American target such as an overseas embassy.
Last week’s devastating
truck bomb attack on Islamabad’s Marriott Hotel further
highlighted security concerns in Pakistan. The blast
claimed the lives of 53 people, including two US
military personnel, the Czech ambassador and a Danish
intelligence officer.
“The level of
sophistication and destruction was a message to the
international community and the Pakistanis that we can
pretty much hit you any place, any time,” said Seth
Jones, a senior regional analyst with the Rand
Corporation, a leading security think-tank.
Kamran Bokhari, Middle
East director at Stratfor, an intelligence analysis
company, said that the scale of the attack - involving
up to 1,000 kilogrammes of explosives - was a clear
indication that al Qaeda or its allies were involved.
“The target and modus
operandi have the signature of a sophisticated jihadi
operation,” he said. “The hotel is in a very sensitive
area. If they can hit the Marriott, why can’t they hit
courts or ministries or the prime minister’s house?”
Against this backdrop, a
senior US intelligence official said that al Qaeda was
seeking to stafe a major attack on an American target
close to the election, to test the new president-elect.
“Their goal would not be
to influence the election but merely to send a message
that they are still a force to be reckoned with,” the
official said. “They know that a successful attack in
the election season will have maximum impact, and they
want to give the new president the jitters.”
Any attack in the weeks
before the Nov 4 election - what is known in American
political circles as an “October surprise” - would
almost certainly give a decisive boost to John McCain,
the Republican candidate who already holds a commanding
lead on questions of national security.
The US has for several
years attacked suspected militant bases inside Pakistan
with missiles fired from Predator drones. Tribesmen
regularly shoot at the unmanned aircraft, although both
the US and Pakistan rejected claims that a drone that
crashed near the border last week was broight down by
gunfire.
But in July, Mr Bush
approved classified orders authorising special
operations forces to conduct ground assaults inside
Pakistan without seeking Islamabad’s approval after his
commanders presented him with evidence about the
militants’ increasingly secure bases in the tribal
areas. Small commando units are flown in and out by
helicopter for precisions raids.
More from
HomelandSecurityus.com
24
September 2008:
A posting uncovered in an Arabic language Internet forum
is currently raising a few eyebrows in the intelligence
community. The single posting, which is presently being
scrutinized by intelligence officials, appears to
provide detailed instructions for Muslims living within
the United States, giving them specific actions to take
before, during and after an upcoming attack in the U.S.
The communication was discovered by
"Archangel,"
a well-known independent intelligence analyst active
within the intelligence community.
The post was initially published on
August 2, 2008 under the title “Commandments
[Directives] Before the Strike,” and appears to be a
sort of a conflict management guide, or instructions on
what Muslims should do prior to the attack, actions that
should be undertaken concurrent with the attack, and
well as additional instructions following the attack.
The text addressing the nature, location
and timing of the planned attack, although specific to
the U.S., appears otherwise ambiguous. For instance, the
timing appears to focus on the Tuesday following the end
of Ramadan, which would be October 7, 2008. The
nature of the attack is less clear. Although the author
appears to talk about a strike greater in magnitude than
the 9/11 attacks and makes reference to the possibility
of it being nuclear in nature, the text references to
the nuclear aspect of the attack appear somewhat
muddled.
In terms of the location of the attack,
it is clear that the author identifies both New York, as
the financial capital of the U.S., and Washington, DC,
as the nation’s capital, as being both desirable and
affected. It is interesting that under analysis, the
details of “the attack” referenced by the author are
nestled within the text of instructions, rather than
being prominently placed to serve as an overt warning as
seen in the past. The relative subtlety in which the
targets and type of attack was referenced is most
interesting from a historical and analytical
perspective.
The author who wrote the posting appears
to be well established and respected by the community of
terrorists and their supporters who frequent such
forums. Research of the various membership profiles
within that community indicates the author could be a
sheik or other Muslim with leadership status. To be
clear, research indicates the author has a level of
credibility within the forum community. Accordingly, it
would be completely consistent for the author to be able
to issue a set of instructions that could be expected to
be followed by the readers of the forum.
An investigation of the post, in terms of
placement, links and replies, also provides significant
insight with regard to its weight and credibility.
Looking at a specific patterns of posting on
Arabic language forums over the last seven years,
investigation and research takes into account the
number, type and authorship of follow-up postings or
replies, for example to the original communication.
What makes this post particularly
interesting is the limited number of replies to date – a
total of three- despite the length of time it has been
posted. Further, the replies in this case are general
blessings, such as “May Allah Bless You” and general
wishes of support for the operation. Based on
extensive research of historical posting patterns over
the last seven years suggest that this posting could be
classified, recognized and acted upon as an order,
as opposed to being a point for further discussion.
The commandments or directives are
written as a set of instructions to an audience the
author has divided into six groups as follows, most if
not all having some presence in the United States:
1. Muslim scholars, students, followers
of Islam;
2. Various Islamic movements.
3. Islamic peoples not belonging to any specific
movement.
4. “Dubai Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus” the Islamic
State of Iraq and other jihadist movements;
5. Sleeper cells and potential recruits;
6. The general command of al Qaeda.
Various directives are issued to each of
the groups referenced above, providing direction to each
group on activities that need to be conducted before and
after “the” attack. For example, members of “sleeper
cells” should immediately seek out those who are already
activated – known by some Islamic scholars and religious
leaders – for further tactical advancement.
Specific instructions were also given to
the Muslim people to move Muslim children to the safety
of training camps at a time that would correspond to the
Tuesday after Ramadan – a date that was established as
the potential attack date within this posting.
In addition to the varied instructions
within this post, there is an additional directive that
appears to serve as a worldwide activation order for
Islamic terrorists to carryout maritime missions
subsequent to the attack, with
the obvious intent on disrupting all major maritime
supply routes.
Instructions were given to jihadists in
the following areas for such operations:
"[T]he Philippines - Indonesia - Maldives
- the coast of Yemen - the coast of Somalia - the coast
of Chinguetti - and perhaps the coast of Algeria;"
"The skyline of the Islamic many
important straits and sea lanes that have articulated by
the march of trade and military forces of infidelity:"
"The Strait of Malacca between Malaysia
and Sumatra, one of the most important corridors of the
world trade."
"[The] Torres Strait, which lies between
New Guinea and northern Australia..."
Perhaps the most disconcerting aspect of
this posting might not be the message itself, but the
message when viewed through the prism of historical
patterns exhibited subsequent to the 2001 terrorist
attacks.
While the contents of the message are revealing, they
become even more relevant when analyzed in tandem with
the threat of worldwide jihad
in advance of the bombings in Yemen and Pakistan.
We
are seeing a resurgence of Islamic jihad previously
before unseen, with few notable exceptions. Those
exceptions, however, are indeed notable: the time
periods before the London & Madrid bombings, both
described as each country's own 9/11.
