14th
January 2009
EL
PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear
consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,"
according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command
on worldwide security threats.
The command's "Joint Operating
Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains
projections of global threats and potential next wars,
puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of
worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the
world, two large and important states bear consideration
for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
"The Mexican possibility may seem less
likely, but the government, its politicians, police and
judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault
and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that
internal conflict turns out over the next several years
will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican
state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an
American response based on the serious implications for
homeland security alone."
The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in
Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat
commands that includes members of the different military
service branches, active and reserves, as well as
civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is
to help transform the U.S. military's capabilities.
In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis,
the USJFC commander, said "Predictions about the future
are always risky ... Regardless, if we do not try to
forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be
caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment
in democracy that we call America."
The report is one in a serious focusing
on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming
from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks,
the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug
czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.
Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica
Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps
running into people in the region who "are in denial
about what is happening in Mexico."
Last week, Mexican President Felipe
Calderon instructed his embassy and consular officials
to promote a positive image of Mexico.
The U.S. military report, which also
analyzed economic situations in other countries, also
noted that China has increased its influence in places
where oil fields are present.
