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Is this Al Qaeda’s Final Warning? |
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As
the 19th anniversary of al-Qaeda's founding nears later
in 2007, Western analysts have accumulated an enormous
body of primary-source material upon which to base
judgments, assessments and predictions. While it is a
truism to say that al-Qaeda is a "learning
organization"—in the sense that it studies failed
operations and adapts—it is not often enough remembered
that al-Qaeda is also an organization that devotes large
amounts of time and resources to teaching, informing and
warning. Needless to say, much of this latter activity
is directed to the Muslim world, but not since the
United States confronted Ho Chi Minh and General Giap
during the Vietnam conflict have they had a foe as eager
as al-Qaeda to educate them about its motivations, war
aims and intentions. Indeed, al-Qaeda has taken the
passion of the North Vietnamese to inform and warn a
step further by recruiting a U.S. citizen to serve as an
English-speaking, Islamist mentor for the American
audience.
The
American Adam Gadahn—now known as Azzam al-Amriki (Azzam
the American)—has emerged as the third most important
spokesman among al-Qaeda leaders, following Osama bin
Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri . While officially only a
member of al-Qaeda's media committee, Gadahn has joined
bin Laden as the only other al-Qaeda member who has
devoted entire statements to directly addressing the
U.S. president and American citizens.
To be sure, al-Zawahiri has ridiculed the
president and talked to Americans, urging conversion and
warning of coming attacks, but for the most part these
statements have been in the context of regional
issues—such as Iraq—for which he is the group's lead
spokesman. Gadahn, therefore, is at the core of
al-Qaeda's most important U.S.-oriented communication
projects—although this does not necessarily mean he is
fully involved in military operations—and seems to serve
as the speaker responsible for ensuring that there is no
way Americans can misunderstand what bin Laden is
talking about. Speaking in the idiom of American
English, and often using contemporary slang, Gadahn is
the sledge that drives home the spike of bin Laden's
messages for Americans.
In this role, Gadahn's May 29 videotape entitled
"Legitimate Demands" constitutes a rare and perhaps
singular item in the immense corpus of al-Qaeda's
statements, interviews, essays, sermons and editorials .
At the most basic level, it completes what appears to
have been Gadahn's assignment to amplify bin Laden's
effort to satisfy his post-9/11 critics by ensuring that
Americans were—according to the Prophet Muhammad's
guidance—offered the chance to convert to Islam and
warned about coming attacks well before they occurred.
Bin Laden both offered conversion and warned Americans
multiple times between Spring 2002 and Summer 2006, and
Gadahn focused on clarifying bin Laden's conversion
offer in a lengthy September 2006 video called "An
Invitation to Islam". Gadahn's words in the conversion
video were shorn of most of the Quranic references
common to bin Laden's rhetoric and were spoken in the
American vernacular.
Gadahn's May 29 "Legitimate Demands" amplifies and
clarifies bin Laden's multiple warnings to the American
people about future attacks. It is unique in the
al-Qaeda archive in its almost complete lack of Islamic
terminology and allusions, as well as in its frank,
almost brutal directness. In the video, Gadahn not only
reemphasizes the threats bin Laden already has made, but
in essence says that time is up for Americans to
consider his boss's words and implicitly warns an attack
in the United States is near.
Gadahn first deftly turns the idiomatic phrasing of some
U.S. leaders' rhetoric back on them, describing
Washington's actions in Iraq and Afghanistan as "your
empire of evil," and asserting that al-Qaeda is not
calling "for negotiations. We don't negotiate with
baby-killers and war criminals like you! No, these are
legitimate demands that must be met"—a clear play on the
White House spokesperson's 2005 response to bin Laden's
truce offer: "We don't negotiate with terrorists. We put
them out of business." Gadahn then denounces the
"futile, farcical maneuvers [on Iraq] on Capitol Hill,"
adding that, "You may or may not be aware of it, but
today…things aren't going to well for your Crusader
coalition [in Iraq and Afghanistan]. In fact, things are
going really badly…In other words, you're losing on all
fronts and losing big time".
The core of Gadhan's presentation is focused on bin
Laden's traditional positions, but his words are phrased
in a manner that adds up to the most maximalist set of
demands al-Qaeda has ever issued regarding what the U.S.
president and Americans must do to avoid being attacked
again domestically. Bin Laden's use of inference,
ambiguity and a patient, in-sorrow-not-anger tone is
gone. In their place, Gadahn substitutes—and we must
assume with the consent of bin Laden and al-Zawahiri—implacable
demands that al-Qaeda knows cannot and will not be met,
and which are reminiscent of those presented to Serbia
by the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1914 when Vienna
intended war, not a settlement.
Gadahn's demands on Washington are nothing less than a
complete U.S. withdrawal from the Muslim world, warning
that a failure to do so "will make you [Americans]
forget all about the horrors of September 11th,
Afghanistan and Iraq, and Virginia Tech". He says that
"every last one of your [America's] soldiers, spies,
security advisors, trainers, and attaches and so on"
must leave the Muslim world "from Afghanistan to
Zanzibar." If a single individual remains, he warns, the
United States will be attacked . "Stop all support and
aid; military political, economic and otherwise to the
56-plus apostate regimes of the Muslim world and abandon
them to their well deserved fate at the hands of the
soldiers of Islam," Gadahn demanded, explaining that if
Washington does not "comply in full," the mujahideen
would "deem it sufficient to continue to fight and kill
Americans". On Israel, Gadahn repeated the pattern: "End
all support, moral, military, economic, political or
otherwise to the bastard state of Israel. And ban your
citizens, Zionist Jews, Zionist Christians and the rest
from traveling to occupied Palestine or settling there.
Even one penny of aid will be considered sufficient
justification to continue the fight".
Gadahn closed by repeating al-Qaeda's demand that
Washington "free all Muslim captives from your prisons,
detention facilities and concentration camps," and
expanded the traditional al-Qaeda demand for U.S.
non-intervention in the Muslim world's affairs by adding
that U.S. officials must "impose a blanket ban on all
broadcasts to our region, especially those designed to
alter or destroy the faith, minds, morals and values of
our people." This last comment is worth noting because
it goes quite a bit beyond the limited degree of
attention and specificity al-Qaeda generally accords to
the impact of U.S. culture on Muslims.
Gadahn's bare-knuckled and supremely confident
presentation sharpens and clarifies the message of
warning bin Laden has repeatedly delivered to Americans;
it is spoken by an American, in modern English, and is
studded with contemporary slang and catch-phrases.
Gadahn's words also have a note of finality about them,
as if he is saying there will be no more warnings from
al-Qaeda, and the choice for Americans is between
surrender and domestic attack. Again, this is out of
character for the rhetoric of bin Laden and al-Zawahiri,
and it suggests that they ordered Gadahn to make a
last-warning to Americans before al-Qaeda attacks inside
the United States. The obvious unacceptability of the
demands also suggests that al-Qaeda has an attack ready
and that nothing short of a U.S. capitulation would
deter it. In Gadahn's words, "the die has been cast" and
an era has begun that will see "your end, not ours" .
Michael Scheuer served as the
Chief of the bin Laden Unit at the CIA's
Counterterrorist Center from 1996 to 1999. He is now a
Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation.
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