27th
April 2009
The
Health Protection Agency now says it only a matter
of time before the first cases of the new strain of
swine flu are confirmed here.
It feels as though the world could be on
the brink of something momentous, but no one dare quite
imagine that.
It was a little eerie yesterday, as
everybody continued to go about their weekend, with the
whispered threat of a flu pandemic in the background...
The vibes from the experts aren't good. I spoke to Dr
John MacCauley, a virologist at the
World Influenza Centre in Mill Hill.
His visions of a possible future are some
of the darkest.
Remembering, of course, that there are
always reasons why such "possible" scenarios might never
play out, what he had to say after catching up with
colleagues working on the new virus was unnerving. The
fact that this virus is
showing pretty efficient human-to-human transmission
is what worries him.
"I suspect this is what the beginning of
a pandemic looks like".
We discussed the
WHO pandemic-alert levels - 1 to 6. The world is
already sitting at threat level 3 as a result of the
H5N1 bird flu that we've come to know (sporadic
cases or small clusters of disease in people, but no
sustained human-to-human transmission). Tomorrow, the
WHO is expected to reassess that level, with the arrival
of this Swine Flu virus.
At the weekend it was thought that might
rise to 4, but Dr MacCauley thinks the world is already
at 5 (human-to-human spread of the virus into at least
two countries in one WHO region). Might sound technical,
but what that actually means, according to the WHO check
list, is a "strong
signal that a pandemic is imminent".
Certainly, governments are beginning to
react as if that's a possibility. Yesterday, the US
mobilised a quarter of its stockpile of anti viral
medicines. Dr MacCauley expects we'll do the same here
soon.
He talks in unnerving terms about the
numbers of "excess deaths". What does that mean?
"It could be anywhere between one million
and 50 million. I couldn't really place it along that
line."
His laboratory expects to receive samples
tomorrow from the
US Centers for Disease Control - so that it can
create a swift diagnostic kit, learn more about the
genetic make up of the new virus, and advise on a
possible vaccine.
So are there reasons to be cheerful?
Some. The UK is home to some of the
world's leading experts on influenza, and has one of the
best pandemic preparedness plans in the world.
The virus appears to be causing only mild
symptoms, so far, outside of Mexico. Some of us may have
some protection from this new virus because similar H1N1
viruses have circulated in recent decades.
